Question:
Ever since Obama
has taken over the new US administration, it is being observed that the
statements by some American officials as well as Hamid Karzai indicate a
worsening of relations between Karzai and the United States.
Put together with
Karzai's moves towards Russia and China as seen in some of his statements
regarding supply of arms to Afghanistan by harnessing the position of
Afghanistan as a prominent member of the Shanghai organisation.
So, have their
relations really soured to the extent that America no longer wants to sustain
Karzai anymore either by preventing his nomination or by bringing him down in
the coming presidential elections later this year? Or even by assassinating
him? Or is it that this whole episode of such statements is a mere façade
created by mutual agreement to give the Afghan people the perception that
relations between him and the US have soured? Which will make Karzai acceptable
to the Afghan people and help him win the elections? Further, can America find
a similar agent who will remain a stooge to them, who could that person be?
Answer:
- To begin with it must be reminded that the Democratic Party's policy towards Afghanistan were fundamentally different with respect to the policy of the previous Bush administration. Joseph Biden, the current US vice-president was the conspicuous face of the Democratic Party who worked on Afghanistan and was very critical of the Bush administration's Afghan policy.
The American newspaper New York Times varied a report about
the visit of Joseph Biden and other US Congressmen to Afghanistan in February
last year where during the course of the official dinner, they ‘interrogated'
Karzai regarding the rotten advisory mess in his government. Karzai denied any
such problem which infuriated Biden so much that he declared: "the
dinner time is over" and cut short his visit before schedule!
The same newspaper stated on 8th February, 2009: "The
situation has changed for Karzai and Afghanistan as Karzai considers himself
unwanted both by his people and Washington." The paper added: "Indeed
Obama considers Karzai as untrustworthy. It also reported Secretary of State
Hillary Clinton saying: "Karzai presides over the nation of
narcotics." The paper concluded saying: "The Americans regret
and fear defeat in their war on Afghanistan, and they perhaps intend to
override Karzai and deal directly with the provincial rulers and regional
governors."
However it is clear that the current Obama administration
accords top priority to Afghanistan in its foreign policy, it wants a
fundamental change in Afghanistan especially because Obama had been focusing on
bringing about a change during his elections campaign speeches. Karzai on his
part is aware of this reality and realizes that as an American agent, he cannot
seek assistance from any other country like Russia or China in order to retain
his position and he does not exercise control over any Afghan city and his
position hinges on the support of the US armed forces.
- In it is this context that Karzai's relations with Russia and China can be understood in their proper perspective which is that these relations are decided and approved by the US to seek these countries support in its war with the Taliban.
As for Russia acceptance of Afghanistan as an honoured
member of the Shanghai Organisation, it does not mean that Karzai can afford to
be free of America; rather it implies that Russia itself allowed even US agent
countries to enter the SCO club (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation) to ensure
security and peace for the SCO countries. This in itself does not mean that
Russia is not trying to gain of influence in countries loyal to the America,
rather it implies that it has ruled out any attempts to gain a foothold in
Afghanistan, at least in the foreseeable future.
As for the Russia agreeing to supply arms to Afghanistan,
and President Medvedev's letter to Karzai regarding Russia readiness to
cooperate with Afghanistan in the defence field, it means that America itself
has asked Russia to assist because the Afghan armed forces have Russian weapons
which require Russian spare parts.
In fact this was stressed by the Karzai government's
spokesman Humayun Hamid Zadeh who said: "Despite Karzai request to
Russia for defence assistance, Afghanistan remains committed to its relations
with the NATO and the United States." He added: "The request
to Russia for assistance has a technical angle, the equipments of our armed
forces, the aircrafts and armoured tanks are Russian made and we are
strategically committed to the NATO and the US." The spokesman was
referring here to the presence Russian made aircrafts in Afghanistan since the
Soviet Union's war with it.
This indicates that Karzai's relations with Russia are a
routine matter and they do not reflect a global conflict.
- Based on these it can be said that Karzai is aware that his days in Afghanistan are numbered and he also realizes that the Obama administration has taken a decision to bring about a change including him. His recent criticisms are nothing more than theatrics by which he hopes to highlight himself as the real president.
In other words the Obama administration intends to try its
luck with a person other than Karzai who has outrun his usefulness and is no
longer suitable for continuing as president.
As for the new face, the Americans will try to find another
person more acceptable to the Afghan people than Karzai whom everyone regards
as a worthless toy of the Americans.
The popularity of any future Afghan president will depend on
his being from the Pashtun lineage because it represents the Afghan majority
and it is for this reason that the US will rule out important and popular
personalities belonging to the Uzbek, Hazara and Tajik minorities like Younis
Qanuni, Qayyum Faheem, the deputy to Ahmad Shah Masood who was killed some
years back, or Ismail Khan, the governor of Heart, Rashid Dostum, Burhanuddin
Rabbani or any other person from the Northern Alliance who conspired with the Americans
to bring down the Taliban in the aftermath of the war in 2001 C.E.
As per the information available until now, it appears that
Ali Ahmed Jalali; the former Interior Minster is the Americans' best bet to
replace Karzai in the upcoming elections scheduled for August/September next.
This is because first of all he is a Pashtun, then he is a military man; and
this is what the Americans want. As for other Pashtun leaders who are in the
running for the president's post, we do not believe that they possess similar
qualifications.
However, the political situations and equations change
rapidly and it is expected that of the Americans fail to find a suitable
replacement for Karzai, the elections may be postponed and Karzai may remain in
office until and a suitable and pliable stooge is found. In other words,
Karzai's term is just a matter of time. As for the chance that the US may even
kill Karzai in order to eliminate him, it looks far fetched and unlikely since
more than being an American stooge, he is a faithful US employee.
In conclusion,
what appears to be a confrontation between Karzai and the Obama administration,
is nothing more than theatrics designed to give the perception that the post of
Afghan president is a real one and he is not a mere puppet.
Finally, we can
say that the present Obama administration intends to change its course in
Afghanistan which will be different to the direction taken by the Bush
administration which failed miserably. A necessary requirement in this change
of course is replacing the soiled face of Karzai and with this; the US hopes to
improve the grim and deteriorating situation in Afghanistan which will reduce
the security pressure on the US and its allies' armed forces.
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