Question:
The Foreign Ministry of Pakistan
summoned the Deputy High Commissioner of India in Islamabad on Thursday and
lodged a protest against Indian Air force war planes violating Pakistani
airspace. Also, the US defense officials announced that they have information
regarding the Indian Air force preparing an attack.
It may be noted that about a month
has passed since the Mumbai incidents, yet the Congress-led coalition government
has not taken a decisive decision on the issue. It sometimes threatens Pakistan
and demands handing over of the accused, or suspends the peace process.
Initially it accused the Lashkar-e-Tayyibah group or accuses the Pakistani
intelligence of training the attackers. But then the threats and warnings
subsided and the Indian parliament discussed (on 17th December, 2008)
tightening laws to prevent terrorism. Then threats and war hysteria is whipped
up and Pakistani airspace is violated...All this demonstrates the prevailing
confusion in the Indian government preventing a firm decision.
What is the reality? Why is the
Indian government wavering to take a resolute decision, and were these events
local, regional or global?
Answer:
Yes, indeed the Indian government is
confused and wavering, failing to take a firm decision on the Mumbai incidents.
The reason is that the events took place in the run-up to the general elections
in India during May 2009. Therefore this means certain defeat for the ruling
Congress Party, if it fails to take bold steps that demonstrate its
decisiveness and strength. And in fact the government cannot demonstrate its
strength by taking some small steps. The action will have to be proportionate
to the Mumbai events or else, the regime loses its credibility. This means it
will have to launch an effective assault against Pakistan. And it was actually
on the brink of doing so. But as it happens, the India and Pakistan region is a
hotbed of global powers- namely, the US and Britain, who exercise considerable
influence in the region. The Indian preparations were under the watch of these
powers. The two neighbors began intensive preparations with Britain determined
to project Pakistan as the aggressor, who supported the Mumbai attackers,
whilst the US tried to project Pakistan as not being involved and willing to
cooperate with India in the investigation into the incidents. At the same time,
the US prevailed upon India to desist from resorting to any military action in
the region, so that the Pakistani armed forces are not compelled to shift to
their eastern border with India and thereby desert the western flank bordering
Afghanistan.
In fact, the immediate and intensive
actions undertaken by the US, during and after the Mumbai attacks, and its pressure
on India, coupled with their stand that the Indian accusations linking Pakistan
to the attacks lacked credible evidence, as well as advising Pakistan to show
more restraint and flexibility towards India, to the extent of humiliating
Pakistan as it was ready to arrest and prosecute any Pakistani who appeared to
be linked to the attacks, Pakistan's total readiness to participate in the
investigations, arrests of a number of Jama'at al-Da'wah leaders on the grounds
that they were linked to the Lashkar-e-Tayyibah....all of this prevented the
Congress-led government from launching an attack. But at the same time, the
Indian government needs to act decisively to restore peoples' trust in it.
As things stand, any action other
than raising military movement and preparedness does not appear to be in
proportionate to the events. However, since any significant military action is
presently ruled out due to the global situation resulting from the US efforts,
the Congress-led government is confused because on the one hand it is looking
for ways to launch a military strike, but at the same time, it can not...
To fully understand the issue, let
us put the sequence of events in perspective:
- At the end of last month, on 26th November, 2008, attacks took place within the Indian city of Mumbai, which led to exchanges of gun fire between the attackers and the India security forces lasting over three days. In the ensuing battles, it was reported that about 200 persons lost their lives and over 300 were injured. The attackers were ten in number and one of them was arrested by the government. The Indian government accused Pakistan, claiming that the attackers were Pakistanis belonging to the Lashkar-e-Tayyibah, trained by it. The accusations grew sharper and India even claimed that they were trained by Pakistani intelligence.
- Subsequent to the attacks and the accusations leveled by India against Pakistan and worsening of relations between these two countries, intense diplomatic activity was undertaken by the two colonialist powers, who have considerable influence in the region and who are battling each other to retain and consolidate their stronghold, i.e. the US and Britain. Their media and newspapers covered the incident, as though it was their own internal matter involving their own citizens.
As for the US, its Secretary of
State, Condoleezza Rice visited India on 3rd December, 2008 and in a joint
press conference with the Indian Foreign Minister, Pranab Mukherjee, Mukherjee
was agitated when Rice observed that this is the time when everyone must
cooperate, he said: "I have informed Dr. Rice that there is no doubt that
the terrorist attacks in Mumbai were carried out by persons who came from
Pakistan and were controlled by Pakistanis." Rice responded saying:
"If the persons were non-government elements, then Pakistan has the
responsibility to take necessary steps against them and cooperate in order to
bring them to justice." She further added: "Any action from the
Indian side should not escalate tensions between the two neighbors who have
already fought three wars since their independence from Britain in 1947."
(Reuters; 3rd December, 2008). This implies that the US does not accuse
Pakistan of involvement in the incidents; rather it defended Pakistan to an
extent and that it does not want India to further escalate tensions and carry
out attacks on Pakistan, to avenge the painful attacks suffered by the Congress
government in India.
This is how the US carried out
intensive actions to pacify and console India after the attacks, which is
evident from Rice's meeting with the Indian politicians and security officials
to whom she advised restraint. An Indian security official gave a presentation
to Rice and said, "Does Washington wants us to keep quiet? Look, the
Pakistani terrorists are still freely infiltrating into India through the
border region," (Ar-Ra'I website 5th December 2008). The website added
that defense officials emphasised that in the wake of the Mumbai attacks the
American fleet has added more forces in the Arabian Sea and the Gulf region
around India, Pakistan and Iran and this was prompted by US fears regarding
armed conflagration between India and Pakistan. The American aircraft carrier
USS John Stennis, carrying 80 aircrafts and 3,200 soldiers, mobilized and with this
the number of aircraft carriers in the region has grown to three, including the
USS Theodore Roosevelt and USS Iowa Jima, which has a strong contingent of
marines and patrol boats. Moreover, Mike Mullen, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs
of Staff visited India on 2nd December, 2008 CE.
After visiting India, Rice went to
Pakistan and praised the Pakistani government and said that the civilian
government of Pakistan is fully committed to War on Terror and does not want it
to be linked with the terrorist elements, (BBC 4th December, 2008). This proves
US support to Pakistan against India. Similarly, Mike Mullen, Chairman of the
Joint Chiefs of Staff, visited Pakistan and the official statement issued by
the US Embassy in Islamabad stated that Mullen was convinced that the Pakistani
officials feel that the Mumbai tragedy represents a dangerous escalation
increasing terrorist attacks in the entire region, (Al-Jazeerah 3rd December,
2008), which implies that Pakistan is not in any way involved in the Mumbai
incidents because it is a dangerous escalation of tensions! There were repeated
visits by Americans to Pakistan, including a US Congress delegation led by John
McCain, the former republican presidential candidate. All this was to express
support for its agents in the region and to reduce its apprehensions of an
attack by India, which will result in the Pakistani troops moving to their
eastern border with India and abandon the western flank, where they are
currently fighting Muslims on America's behalf in Waziristan and other tribal
regions!
US Deputy Secretary of State John
Negroponte also visited Pakistan on 11th December, 2008 after the UN Security
Council passed a resolution on 10th December, 2008 placing the Jama'at al
Da'wah and four of its leaders on the terrorists' list. The Pakistani
government arrested the Da'wah leaders and promptly sealed their offices. It
appears that the US intended to pacify the Indians through this move and
therefore it demanded that Pakistan comply with this resolution immediately and
without delay, so as to prevent India from carrying out attacks against
Pakistan which will unsettle its loyal agents there, including the President
Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Geelani, which will only create more
problems for them and further anger the Pakistani people because of their
support for the US agenda of fighting Islam and Muslims. The Americans want to
protect the jobs of its agents in Pakistan, who are engaged in the war against
Islam and Muslims in Pakistan and Afghanistan. America does not want to engage
them in another war with India, thereby abandoning an all important front for
America, which will endanger its global influence.
As for Britain, they also got into
action at the highest levels but not in line with the Americans. Gordon Brown,
the British Prime Minister, visited New Delhi and met Dr. Manmohan Singh, his
Indian counterpart on 14th December, 2008 and announced his support for New
Delhi's stance and said, "We know that Lashkar- e-Tayyibah is responsible
for the attacks and it is necessary to respond on this great tragedy,"
(Al-Jazeerah 14th December, 2008). Having said this whilst in India, Brown then
visited Pakistan and asked them to fight Muslims and offered an assistance of
9,000,000 dollars to Pakistan for the ‘War on Terror'! The British newspapers
published reports accusing Pakistan of complicity in the Mumbai attacks and
having trained the attackers through the Pakistani army. The Sunday Times said
on 8th December, 2008 that it has been informed of an Indian intelligence
report claiming that the ten attackers were part of 500 who received training
by the Pakistani army and navy. The paper reported on the authority of sources
close to the Indian intelligence that any new attack on India before the
upcoming general elections will definitely result in a war between the two
countries. This proves that the British and their Indian agents are looking at
attacking Pakistan, which will restore the Indian people's confidence in the
Congress-led government before the general elections.
The Congress party is known to
harbour British loyalty and is due to face general elections in May, 200,9 and
is better placed as evident from the media broadcast and published reports that
India has achieved a higher economic growth during Congress's rule and is
enjoying economic prosperity apart from great scientific advancements in space
exploration and weapons development. The Congress party riding on these, is
optimistic of winning the next elections. When the recent Mumbai attacks took
place and India trembled severely, the opposition parties led by the Bharatiya
Janata Party (BJP) which is pro- US and which suffered defeat in the previous
elections in May, 2004, found an opportunity to embarrass the Congress
government's stance and the opposition parties accused Singh and his government
of a weak-kneed approach on security and of feebleness in bringing the
attackers to justice. This embarrassed the government which is due to face
elections in the course of some months. It may be noted that the BJP government
had fallen in the aftermath of several attacks and bomb blasts that took place
during its tenure, for which it did not directly accuse Pakistan, rather it
accused the Students Islamic Movement of India, the SIMI and was similarly
accused by the then opposition parties. The BJP had earlier achieved success
against Pakistan when America forced the Pakistani officials to concede certain
shameful and humiliating demands on the Kashmir issue, whereby it won the
earlier elections and remained in power from 1999 to 2004. Now it is racking up
the security issue to shake people's trust in the Congress-led government and
it appears to be a potent weapon in this matter. The Ar-Ra'I website mentioned
on 5th December, 2008 the Indian intelligence agency's report that there was a
possibility of attacks on Indian airports and hijacking of planes, using them
to target major cities.
From the above, it may be concluded
that the Congress led government, having been shaken by the recent events can
only salvage and restore its trust, if Pakistan conceded to its demands like
handing over of 20 persons wanted in India who live in Pakistan, or if India
carries out a military strike against Pakistan to avenge the Mumbai attacks, or
by any means that demonstrate a victory over Pakistan.
But because it appears very
difficult for Pakistan in the current circumstances to hand over India's wanted
persons, since the Pakistani Defence Minister, Ahmed Mukhtar, has refused to
handover any of the wanted persons to India, (Al-Hayat: 8th December, 2008),
because this will completely erode people trust in their rulers, including the
president and prime minister, which is already trembling, and strengthen the
position of the Congress government, which America does not wish to see in power,
unless it agrees to tow the US line.
The Americans are working with all
their strength to prevent India from attacking Pakistan and this is why they
have not cashed in on the opportunity to topple the present government from
power there and they point to the Pakistani people's rallying around its
leadership in fighting India. The Washington Post reported on 8th December,
2008 that the Pakistani people are fully behind their rulers and even the
Taliban fighters have declared their intention to fight India shoulder to
shoulder with the Pakistan army if it was attacked by the Indians. The
newspaper reported the statements of certain Taliban leaders like Maulvi Nazeer
and Baitullah Masood, wherein they expressed their readiness to fight India
alongside the Pakistani army which implies that everyone including the
adversaries of the Pakistani government is willing to fight India ... Apart
from this, as we mentioned earlier, that the Americans' attempts to weaken the
Indian accusations against Pakistan, and its push to the Pakistani government
to display more flexibility towards India in arresting any Pakistani who is
found to be involved in the incidents, and show its willingness to participate
in investigations. The Pakistani government on its part arrested a number of
Jama'at al Da'wah leaders, all of these forced India from taking any major
retaliatory military action against Pakistan.
Thus, the Congress-led government of
India is searching for an intensive action proportionate to the Mumbai
incidents, in order to salvage itself in the next general elections, but it is
very difficult for it to undertake any large enough military action,
commensurate with the Mumbai attacks due to the US-maneuvered current world
situation. Also, it is not easy for Pakistan to handover the wanted men...and
the resulting situation is rather confusing for the Congress government,
preventing any decisive action in this regard.
This is with regards to the Indian
dilemma.
As for the incident itself, it is a
global one that took place on the Indian soil, this is evident from the
following:
a. The initiatives undertaken by the US and Britain in the
immediate aftermath of the incident, which we mentioned earlier, indicate the
concern of the two powers in the events and happenings in India and her
neighbor, Pakistan.
b. A closer look at the initiatives and actions of US and
Britain clearly points to the fact that they are working in opposite
directions. Britain is supporting the Indian position and its accusation
against Pakistan that it is clearly involved in the attacks, whilst the
Americans on the other hand are weakening and underplaying India's accusations
and raising concerns about the rising military tensions.
c. Indeed, the Mumbai attacks are not an advantage for the
Congress-led government. Rather they impede its path and shake the trust of its
supporters and people in it. They have also reduced its chances of winning the
next general elections and eroded its position both regionally, as well as
globally...
d. The supporters of the US in India have found a golden
opportunity in these attacks to boost their sagging fortunes and strengthen
their position to be better placed to win the next general elections, by
exploiting these incidents fully and opposing the government fiercely. This is
in line with the US requirement that the current pro-British Congress-led
government falls from power in the next elections and their own pro-American
men regain power.
The conclusion from all these facts
is that it is likely that it is the US and its agents that are behind these
attacks, either directly or proxy, which means that either the US and its men
have planned and executed the incidents or they have exploited one of the
several organisations who have been severely wronged and hence harbour revenge.
So whilst the organization itself may have carried out the attacks with
logistical support from the pro-US elements in India, the incidents were used
politically to the advantage of Americans and pro-American elements. This is
quite probable given that India is a non- homogenous country composed of a
large number of ethnic and religious groups; apart from the various well-known
Kashmiri groups, there are a number of separatist movements like the Bodo
movement in Assam, Tripura Nationalist Movement, the National Liberation Force,
the Khalistan Liberation Force in Punjab and a myriad more in various parts of
India. Furthermore, there are scores of other right wing Hindu
ultra-nationalist groups, who target Muslims and Christians like the BJP which
continues to exploit the anti-Muslim card for electoral gains. Moreover, there
is the Indian state itself which has been implicated in brutal acts of violence
against the Muslims like in Gujarat and continues to kill Muslims in Kashmir
for the last six decades!
Thus, the reality of the various
factions in India and the fact of the treachery which the ruling elite of India
practices especially against the Muslims, all of this render India vulnerable
to various acts of violence and blasts.
If one were to add to this, the fact
that after America brought the pro-US Vajpayee to power, the staunchly
pro-British Congress managed to return to power and felt that the Americans
will not easily accept losing their influence in the region and this was why
the Congress brought in a somewhat ‘pliable' Manmohan Singh as the prime
minister, in order to reduce American pressure on Congress party. American on
its part engaged India intensively, either through signing the nuclear
agreement or through economic assistance, and at the same time exploited the
brutal treachery of the Indian system in its minorities to create problems for
the Congress in the next elections. The Mumbai attacks was the major incident
in this series of American attempts to bring its agents to power in India by defeating
Congress, the old British loyalists.
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