The Georgian attack on South Ossetia
(This is a translation from the
Arabic, for accurate meanings please refer to the original)
Question:
What prompted Georgia to initiate
attack on South Ossetia? Did it not anticipate a strong reaction from Russia?
Where would this war lead to?
Answer:
It is clear that the US has fanned
the flames of war in Georgia because it was Georgia armed forces that launched
the attack on South Ossetia and it is unlikely that Georgia would embark on a
attack of such magnitude with the US green signal.
Therefore the Georgian assault was
pre-planned and surprised Russia and it may well be the beginning of a
long-drawn war in the Caucasus with the Georgians and Ossetians fuelling it
primarily. Russia on its part will not remain a silent spectator because if it
does so, it stands to lose its hegemony in the region. It will also not give
away sovereignty especially over South Ossetia to Georgia since an overwhelming
majority of the regions 70,000 inhabitants are either Russians or are
pro-Russia and hold Russian passports. These inhabitants regard their territory
as a natural extension of the Northern Ossetia which is in Russia.
Georgians too will not easily give
up South Ossetia because it is a part of their territory according to the
official and international maps, on the other hand it intends to take revenge
from the Ossetians who defeated the Georgians in the 1992 war and separated
from it with the Russian backing and are a separate entity for the last 16
years. It is more likely that the war may spill over into the Abkhazian region
which is even bigger than South Ossetia both in terms of geographical area and
population which separated from Georgia in the same year.
The initial US statements in the
aftermath of the attack clearly suggest that it supports Georgia in its
venture. The US State Department spokesman Gonsalves Ghalighou said: “We are in
touch with senior officials in Georgia and Russia“. He added, “We call upon
Moscow to use pressure on the authorities in charge in Southern Ossetia to
cease fire”. Here he regards the separatists’ leadership as the de facto
leadership, in another statement a US administration official said that “the
solution to the South Ossetian conflict must focus upon unity of the Georgian
territories”, in reference to uniting the southern Ossetian region with
Georgia.
As for Russia, after the separation
of Kosovo from Serbia, it has warned that its reaction on the issue would be to
separate southern Ossetia and Abkhazia from Georgia and their independence.
Some observers see Georgia’s entry into the NATO linked to the solution to the
southern Ossetian and the Abkhazian conflict. The Georgian President Saakshivli
appears to be in a hurry to join the NATO alliance and has therefore ventured
this attack being assured of American support to prevent Russia from
interfering in his country’s internal affairs and to develop his country to the
levels enjoyed by the Baltic countries like Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia which
are completely free from any Russian interference. However, it is unlikely that
Russia and Georgia will reach a final settlement, especially the Georgians have
waited long for a solution. The Russians on the other hand consider the issue
as their regional one and do not imagine giving up on the separatists.
Therefore most solution appears to be a soldiers’ respite cease fire and not a
final solution.
Indeed the United States is likely
to be primary beneficiary and has nothing to lose, because this conflict is
likely to remain at least for the time being a thorn in the Russian flesh
draining much of its energies and engaging it for a long time at the cost of other
issues.
Or,
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